The Tone Of The Whole Year'S Monetary Policy Remains Stable.

In January, the new loan data of 2 trillion and 510 billion yuan made the market staggering. Many brokers analysts predicted that credit could continue to a certain extent in January in February.

However, experts pointed out that the new credit data from 1 and February can not be speculated that the central bank's monetary policy has entered the "water release period" again. The tone of the whole year policy is still stable. It is estimated that the new credit will fall seasonally after the first quarter.

It is worth noting that a number of bankers in the banking industry have said that loans will continue to be favored by commercial banks in addition to major national strategies and local infrastructure construction.

Yi Gang, vice president of the central bank, recently said that the current monetary policy is prudent, moderate and flexible, so as to avoid over easy, because excessive monetary policy may lead to asset price bubbles and devaluation of the RMB.

Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of communications, believes that overall credit support for the real economy has been strengthened.

However, at present, the pressure of domestic capacity, inventory and structural adjustment is still not small. The international external economic situation is still complex and sluggish, and the situation in the United States is not as good as expected.

The pace may slow down.

It is expected that the seasonally rapid growth of credit will come down, and monetary policy is likely to remain stable, and the possibility of a drop in the short-term is likely to decline.

Taking into account the advance of the supply side reform this year, inventory, deleveraging and cost reduction will become the primary task of enterprises, especially traditional industries. Therefore, financing needs will come from more emerging industries and infrastructure rather than traditional industries.

The credit momentum in January is unlikely to last too long, and the scale of new credit will continue to grow steadily throughout the year.

It is worth noting that the trend of the US dollar will affect the choice of financing methods and financing currencies, and may become an uncertain factor affecting the scale of RMB credit throughout the year.

According to reporters interviewed many commercial banks in the Yangtze River Delta know that the current small and medium-sized businesses

The mood of "borrowing" is still heavy.

In February, the new supply of small and medium enterprises index of the people's livelihood declined sharply, indicating that the enterprises' expectations for future business activities and fixed assets investment have improved, but confidence in business improvement is at the bottom.

In addition, many banks insiders admitted that this year, "enterprises are willing to lend, banks are reluctant to lend" or become a common phenomenon, which will lead to new credit growth lower than market expectations.

Many brokerages predict that new credit will reach 11 trillion to 12 trillion this year.

Analysts pointed out that in 2015, the risk appetite of commercial banks continued to be low, and some banks' credit lines had not yet been fully utilized.

At the beginning of the new year, credit acceleration is not only a commercial bank's own business pressure, but also reflects the marginal improvement of risk preference of commercial banks.

However, the change of risk preference is more obvious than that of large banks.