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Why Is Information Forecast Of Agricultural Products Inaccurate?

2010/11/2 13:35:00 59

Prediction Of Cotton Product Information

Many farmers have reflected that they have been built from provinces to cities, counties and towns.

Agriculture products

The information forecasting department regularly announces relevant information to farmers every year, but why is it not allowed to publish information every year, or is there less time to predict?

Zhang Jianshe, Tonghe village, Tonghe Township, Tanghe County, Nanyang, said that the cotton planting area will be reduced this year, and the purchase price of cotton will increase slightly, but the vegetable planting area will expand and the price will be stable.

It is suggested that the planting area of farmers should not be enlarged this year, and cotton can be slightly expanded.

Zhang Lao Han of the same village also said he was following the advice and planting cotton.

The measure of area

Slightly increased, thinking

Price

There will be no big change. As a result, at the beginning of September, when the new cotton came into the market, they sold all the more than 3000 kilograms of cotton at the price of 3.5 yuan per catty. "Now the cotton price has risen to 6.5 yuan per catty. If we sell it now, we can earn more than 10000 yuan."

Zhang Lao Han did not understand why the information forecast department gave the prediction result and the actual gap is so big.

In view of the impact of price fluctuations of agricultural products on Farmers' planting over the years, the relevant departments have been issuing information forecasts, but in the opinion of experts, the prediction results are general. The most typical example is the inaccurate Market Forecast of garlic and watermelon, which leads to fluctuations in agricultural products prices, which hurt farmers and enterprises.

Zhang Zhancang, vice president of the Academy of Sciences, said that our country's inaccurate prediction of agricultural products information is mainly due to the backward means of prediction and the disconnection between the prediction method and the market.

Zhang Zhancang explained: "the openness of our country is very good now. The impact of foreign agricultural products on the prices of agricultural products in China is very great. The domestic information forecasting department only pays attention to the domestic planting area and the market supply and demand. They see that domestic agricultural products have a good harvest, and they think they will almost cut their prices according to experience, but they do not notice that the international demand is also increasing. The price has gone up. The cotton price change this year is very typical." for the global changes, the lack of professional knowledge of the Information Forecasting Department and the backward research methods have caused the serious disconnection between the prediction results and the market. "Zhang Zhancang said.