Textile And Garment Exports Face Declining Growth Rate
The euro's first intermediate price of the RMB exchange rate exceeded 1 to 10 in September 2nd. Insiders said that the European Union is the main export area of China's textile and clothing, and the appreciation of the RMB against the euro will affect the textile and garment exports to the European Union. After experiencing a decline in the US, the textile and garment industry may need to face another severe test, and the EU market may also face a slowdown in growth.
前7月输欧纺织服装增三成
The China Foreign Exchange Trading Center announced that in September 2nd, the interbank foreign exchange market's middle price of euro to RMB exchange rate was 1 euro to 9.9667 yuan. On the 3 day, the middle price of the exchange rate was 1 euro to 9.9225 yuan.
Since the reform of the exchange rate, the trend of RMB to euro exchange rate has shown a moderate two-way fluctuation trend, which has been hovering around 1 euro to 10 yuan. From the second half of last year to the two quarter of this year, there has been a wave of depreciation, and 1 euros has been close to the 11.20 mark against the renminbi. From the end of the reform to the end of 6 this year, the RMB has depreciated 7.54% against the euro.
However, since the two quarter of this year, the appreciation rate of RMB has accelerated to the euro exchange rate, rising from 11 to 10. Up to now, the RMB appreciation against the euro has exceeded 0.24% since the reform. Bank traders believe that the recent signs of recession in the euro area's economic data are pulling the dollar back and causing the euro to weaken, leading to the appreciation of the renminbi against the euro.
Qu Zhihang, senior analyst at Ping An Securities, said the European Union and the United States have been the main areas of textile and clothing exports in China. Since the first half of this year, the growth rate of China's textile and clothing exports to the United States has been declining, while the performance of the European Union is relatively good.
The latest report released by China's first textile network shows that in July of this year, China's textile and apparel exports to the EU amounted to US $20 billion 442 million, and US exports to the second largest export markets amounted to US $12 billion 784 million, with an increase of 34.83% and -1.34% respectively, and two of them accounted for 34.12% of China's total textile exports.
Meanwhile, Wang Qian, editor in chief of the first textile network, said that since the first half of this year, under the influence of many factors such as the continued appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, China's textile and clothing industry has lost more orders to the three major traditional markets in the United States, Hongkong and Japan. According to statistics, in the first 7 months of this year, the volume of textile and clothing exports increased by only 5.21% in terms of quantity, which was 5.53 percentage points lower than that in 2007. Among them, the number of us and Hongkong decreased most obviously, reaching -8.12% and -20.41% respectively, while the number of other important export markets in Japan increased by only 0.18%. In the four traditional export markets, only the EU benefited from quota cancellation and the relative stability of its economy, and the number increased by 19.96%.
升值过快将拖累出口增长
According to regional analysis, if the RMB continues to appreciate against the euro, it will affect the export of textile and clothing to the European Union. That is, the export of China's textile and garment industry has experienced a decline in the United States. It may need to face another severe test, and the EU market will also see a slowdown.
It is reported that since the abolition of textile quotas in junior high school this year, the growth rate of China's textile and clothing exports to the EU has accelerated, with an average monthly growth rate of around 40%. In July this year, EU textile and garment exports amounted to US $4 billion 282 million, an increase of 28.74% over the same period last year.
This trend will slow down with the appreciation of the renminbi against the euro. Earlier, because of the slowdown in demand and the appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar, the growth rate of textile and apparel exports to the United States slowed down significantly, or even declined.
First, textile statistics show that with the accelerated appreciation of the RMB and the weak consumption in the US market, the growth rate of China's textile exports to the United States sharply declined from 31.39% last July to -23.97% in December. This year, although the slowdown in export growth has slowed down, in July, China's exports to the US textile and apparel amounted to US $737 million, a slight increase of 5.74 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and the US export situation is still not optimistic.
Gao Yong, vice president of the China Textile Industry Association, said that the association is "more concerned" on the current appreciation of the RMB's appreciation of the exchange rate in the euro, and will "pay close attention".
Wang Qian analysis, export textile enterprises to maintain a reasonable profit margins will become increasingly difficult. For most textile exporting enterprises, the cost of raw materials and labor is paid in Renminbi. Therefore, how to change the RMB price of export products is a great challenge for enterprises to maintain a reasonable profit margin in the case of the depreciation of the US dollar and the euro.
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