It Is Difficult To Control The Intensity Of National Cotton Store Regulation.
Since the rumors issued by the national cotton mill will be postponed, not only the average daily price of Zhengzhou cotton and the national cotton store auction, the domestic cotton (14870, 350, 2.41%) spot quotation has fallen considerably, and since July 29th, the proportion of state-owned cotton storage has decreased to 96.75%, 87.85% and 74.40% on the three trading days, which is in sharp contrast to the 100% pactions in the previous 24 consecutive trading days. The earlier traders who hoarded stocks of large quantities of national cotton reserves chose to suspend the auction, and the enthusiasm of textile enterprises to participate in the national cotton auction was picked up. For example, the auction proportion of textile enterprises in the week of 25-29 days in July was 64%.
First,
Trader
Second, if the national cotton reserve policy is not adjusted, it will be equivalent to an increase of about 600000 tons at the current 30 thousand tons of listed resources per day. As of August 2nd, the cumulative turnover of 1 million 674 thousand tons is still around 20 trading days from the end of August, and the average daily output of 30 thousand tons is calculated. At least about 1200000 tons of state-owned cotton stores are listed before the end of September, and the annual output of 2015/16 will be close to 3 million tons.
Reserve cotton
Inventory is relatively large, gambling in 9 and October, and other reasons led to a large amount of money due to pressure on cotton, because of risk reduction, free from the perspective of the quilt, suspend the auction.
Some textile mills participating in the auction said that the focus of the buyer's bid auction is the quality of Xinjiang cotton, especially the hand picking cotton produced by the Xinjiang regiment in the southern part of the regiment in 2012 and 2013. "12" 13 "and" 22 "" 23 "are favored, and the reserved cotton with low grade, low quality and low spinnability is no longer fully collected.
On the one hand, compared with the C21S and below low count yarn, the C40S and above high count yarn has a larger increase, and the textile factory is more inclined to spin high count yarn.
Combed yarn
In addition, since June 15th, the lowest paction price of national cotton reserves has increased by more than 50% (the lowest price in May 3rd is 9730 yuan / ton, and the lowest price in July 18th is 14650 yuan / ton), so spinning low spinning yarn "costs have gone up greatly, yarn prices have risen little", and the loss of textile enterprises has expanded.
On the other hand, entering the August, orders for high count yarn in trading companies and weaving factories gradually increased (mainly for proofing and placing orders in spring and summer in 2017). Orders for OE yarn and low spinning ring spinning decreased rapidly, taking into account that there was a shortage of 1% import quotas for tariffs (bonded cotton or Australian cotton and uygurn cotton procurement were more difficult in the period of bonded or 8/9 months), the price of cotton CNF and CIF remained high, and Xinjiang cotton had been supplied without quantity in the year of 2015/16.
For the trend of cotton prices in 8 and September, both sides agree that the national cotton storage and control policy is the key. The focus of the dispute is whether the current 30 thousand ton daily output can be maintained until the end of September, and if there is still a gap before the end of September, whether Xinjiang will be listed.
Cotton processing enterprises and cotton textile mills hope that the price of cotton spot before new cotton will fall back to the 13000-14000 yuan / ton body, which will help the cotton mill to gain the courage to buy seed cotton, help cotton textile enterprises to import large quantities of orders and improve the competitiveness of textile and clothing. However, for the cotton trade that has been hoarding for sale, once the sale price of national cotton in the spot market is less than 13000 yuan / ton or even 13500 yuan / ton in 2012/2013, traders will face the danger of being deeply stuck, and will not be conducive to the operation of the cotton market in 2016/17.
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